Roadmap for the development of disease control strategies for coronaviruses

Modelling interventions

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Modelling interventions

Research Question

The development of accurate mathematical models to study viral epidemiology and establish the capacity to assess control strategies across contexts and interfaces

A need for disease dynamic models (including testing of interventions) as well as epidemiological modelling
A poor understanding and knowledge on coronavirus infection in wildlife. This lack of data limits our ability to populate existing models with wildlife data to accurately model outcomes and to assess the risk species or populations of becoming reservoir host(s)
Identifying ways to improving the use of molecular epidemiological data, especially when data is fragmented

Increase the capacity to perform modelling as we are currently underpowered. This includes ensuring that we train and maintain a population of trained experts
Improved diagnostic programmes in wildlife to gather the required data to populate the models

A framework to predict zoonotic reservoirs under data uncertainty: a case study on beta coronaviruses (2024 – preprint) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4304994/v1
Wardeh, M., Baylis, M. & Blagrove, M. S. C. (2021) Predicting mammalian hosts in which novel coronaviruses can be generated. Nat Commun. 12 (1): 780. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21034-5.