Bioeconomic modelling of foot and mouth disease and its control in Ethiopia

Keywords: Control, cost-benefit, economic impact, epidemiology, Ethiopia, Foot and mouth disease, intention, modelling, production system. Bioeconomic Modelling of Foot and Mouth Disease and Its control in Ethiopia Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease which affects cloven hoofed animals. FMD is endemic in Ethiopia with potential impact both on national and household economies because of its effect on production and trade. The general objective of this PhD research was to provide insight into the epidemiology and economics of FMD and its control in Ethiopia to support decision making in the control of the disease. A study of the national incidence of FMD outbreak revealed that the disease is endemic in all regional states affecting more than a quarter of the country every year, with the highest frequency of outbreaks occurring in the central, southern and southeastern parts of the country. The type of production system, presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were associated with the risk of outbreaks in the districts. Field outbreak study indicated that FMD morbidity rates of 85% and 95 % at herd level; and 74% and 61% at animal level in the affected herds in the crop–livestock mixed system (CLM) and pastoral system, respectively. The herd level economic loss estimates were on average USD 76 per affected herd in CLM and USD 174 per affected herd in the pastoral production system. Study of motivation of farmers to implement FMD control, through the Health Belief Model (HBM) framework, revealed that almost all farmers had high intention to implement FMD vaccination free of charge, which decreases, especially in CLM system, if the vaccine is charged. Farmers in the pastoral and crop-livestock mixed production systems had low intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction control measure. Among the HBM perception constructs perceived barrier was found to be the most important predictor of the intention to implement FMD control measures. A modelling study on the national economic impact and cost-benefit analysis FMD control strategies showed that the annual cost of the disease is about 1,354 million birr. A stochastic cost-benefit analysis of three potential FMD control strategies indicated that all the strategies on average have a positive economic return but with variable degree of uncertainty including possibility of loss. Targeted vaccination strategy gives relatively the best economic return with relatively less risk of loss.